Putin's Ukraine Blunder

By Matthew Hutchings on November 18, 2014

Many commentators in the west have portrayed Putin as a mastermind of realpolitik, and his invasion of Crimea and the eastern provinces of Ukraine as a shrewd gamble that has embarrassed NATO and the west. In reality, though, he has shot himself in the foot.

The past half-decade of Russian history has seen Obama’s hopes for a “reset” in relations dashed as Putin cements himself in power and cultivates his ruling class of Siloviks. Although nominally a federal republic, it would be fairer to describe the country as an oligarchy composed of top players in the intelligence community, the business elite and the red mob. Riding a tide of resurgent Russian nationalism, Putin has painted the West and the NATO alliance as Russia primary enemies, setting the region up for a second Cold War.

After the Maidan movement ousted the corrupt Russian lackey Poroshenko, who won reelection with the help of the eastern, Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine, the citizens of some of those regions rose in revolt. Claiming that violence was being directed specifically against Russian-speakers and that they had a duty to protect the same, Russia annexed Crimea. It also sent material and personnel to the “Novorussian” rebels fighting in the east of the country. This ran the gamut from food, medical and weapons drops, to deploying troops from the special forces, interior ministry, regular army, and even private military companies.

The rebels are so well-supplied on a per-unit basis that it is hard for a casual observer to distinguish which are the state forces and which are the insurgents, as this video of Novorussian rebels attacking the Donetsk Airport clearly shows.

Russian tank units have again been spotted moving inside the Ukrainian border several times, and mobile rocket launcher units have been observed by satellites for months firing into and sometimes from inside sovereign Ukrainian territory. Russian ground troops captured by the Ukranian military on Ukrainian soil have claimed that they knew exactly where they were going when their commanders ordered them to march west. So far the Obama administration has refused to call this an invasion, likely for fear of the responsibilities that acknowledgement would require.

Thankfully for them, the combination of sanctions and the legendary wariness of capital investment is now hobbling the Russian economy. The ruble had it’s worst week since the Soviet Union collapsed, dropping a full ten percent in a few days. Beginning the year at 32 rubles to the dollar, it has now reached 48.60. Russia is now facing a serious economic downturn and massive capital flight, as well as oil prices that have fallen by almost a quarter, putting a huge dent in one of Russia’s biggest moneymakers.

Their response to Western sanctions was to put sanctions of their own on certain food imports from NATO countries, but this has arguably done more damage to their own country by cutting into the meager or fixed salaries of the very people who identify Putin with a triumphant and resurgent Russian patriotism. The Russian Central Bank has pledged to do something about rising inflation, but they have already pumped tens of billions each month to keep it afloat, and it is not clear if there is much more they can do. Capital flight and inflation have been followed by consumer panic, with many Russians rushing to convert their rubles into foreign currency. According to unnamed news reports cited by ABC News, “dollars and euros are in short supply in Moscow.”

Putin has already demonstrated that he is not content to yoke Russia onto the established international order. He, and many older Russians with him, yearn for a return to the days when Russia was respected, or at least feared- when it had a sphere of influence to call its own. What remains to be seen is how long his popularity can last when the very actions that win him so much popularity among patriotic Russians are causing those same people so much economic hardship.

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